This is a question that comes up quite a bit and it is about time it is addressed. Gamblers live off information in order to make their bets. If you are running your own pay per head sportsbook, why not dictate the information being fed to them. After all, it will only benefit you to know which way the action is going to go. In addition, providing them with a blog or other sports news will give them another reason to visit your pay per head sportsbook on a regular basis.

Here is the thing, trends always have and always will play a large part in how bettors place their action. However, for just about every trend pointing in one direction, there is another trend telling them to bet the other way. If you have players that focus on these trends, you can literally dictate which way their action will fall.

A perfect example of popular trends was the West Coast to East Coast travel. Just a few years ago, this trend was extremely profitable for bettors. If you look at the percentages over the last ten years, it would still appear to be a profitable trend to bet, but it is not! The trend was so unbalanced over the last decade that even if it loses overall for the next two or three years, it will still appear to be profitable. Only the really sharp players will actually realize this trend is reversing.

Going back from roughly 2000 to 2008, teams that traveled from the West Coast to the East Coast for a 1:00pm EST game were losing and failing to cover at almost 80 percent. There were wiseguys that simply waited on these games and then pounded them to make huge profits every season. Keep in mind, some of these games were significant favorites that were losing outright. In fact, the underdog money line winners were over 60 percent, turning a huge profit (many of these teams were going off at well over 2:1 odds).

Week 4 of the NFL schedule was a perfect example of how this trend is reversing. There were a total of three games that met the West Coast to East Coast travel trend.

  • San Francisco (-3.5) @ N.Y. Jets
  • San Diego (-1.5) @ Kansas City
  • Seattle (-2) @ St. Louis

All three of these games have the West Coast team traveling east as favorites at 1:00pm EST. Five years ago, this was money in the bank. This time around, however, you would have lost two out of three games. In addition, the Seattle game was the perfect letdown situation with the big win in Dallas. While the trend came true here anyway, most sharp players would have been on this game anyway, while the average player was probably pounding Seattle after the win at home against Dallas.

This particular situation is the perfect example of how providing information to your players will actually help make your pay per head sportsbook more successful. Knowing this trend is reversing is a huge advantage over the average player. This type of player believes just about everything they read. The will not even fault you for providing the information, they will just chalk it up to bad luck.

Another fun trend is the Sunday Night-Monday Night reverse trend. For some crazy reason, if the game on Sunday night goes over, the Monday night game goes under, or vice versa. It is unexplainable, but it happens more often than you would think. Don't believe us? Let's take a quick look at the first couple of weeks in the 2012 NFL season (we do not count week 1 as there are two Monday Night games).

Week 2

  • Sunday Night - San Fran 27 - Detroit 19 (opening total of 47, final 46 - under or push)
  • Monday Night - Atlanta 27 - Denver 21 ( total 43, over)

Week 3

  • Sunday Night - Baltimore 31 - New England 30 (total 49, over)
  • Monday Night - Seattle 14 - Green Bay 12 (total 46, under)

Week 4

  • Sunday Night - Philadelphia 19 - New York Giants - 17 (total 47.5, under)
  • Monday Night - Chicago 34 - Dallas 18 (total 44, over)

Since you know this trend holds true, your job is to find information that puts doubt in your players' minds and makes them want to go the other way. For instance, the Monday night game would have been the perfect setting to discuss the fact that Dallas had only scored five offensive TDs going into this game and that they also had the top rated defense in the league, pointing to an obvious under.

As you can see, information can be used to your advantage. Players want to believe they have an inside edge. You can provide them with this information but do so in a way that benefits your pay per head sportsbook. Moreover, when they lose, they will probably tell their friends they "We were on the right side of the game, it just didn't pan out the way it was supposed to." In other words, you will have them convinced there was no way they could have bet the other side of the game and it was simply bad luck, a bookie's best friend.

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